Table 1 Essential inputs for the model

Age distribution of Breast cancer

Beta

Kantelhardt, et al. [14]

 30–39

0.000853

 40–49

0.000878

 50–59

0.00079

 60–69

0.000656

Stage progression transition probabilities

Stage I

Age 40–49

Age 50–59

Beta

Gocgun et al. [15]

 Remission to local recurrence

0.01

0.009

 Remission to distal recurrence

0.000016

0.000025

 Local recurrence to distal recurrence

0.062

0.052

 Local recurrence to cancer death

0.013

 Distal recurrence to cancer death

0.555

0.137

Stage II & III

Beta

 Remission to local recurrence

0.018

0.016

 Remission to distal recurrence

0.024

0.105

 Local recurrence to distal recurrence

0.165

0.13

 Distal recurrence to cancer death

0.386

0.423

Stage IV

Beta

 Distal recurrence to cancer death

0.386

0.423

Mammography sensitivity and specificity (40–49, 50–59 years)

Beta

Keen et al. [16]

 Sensitivity

0.821, 0.921

 Specificity

0.859, 0.859

Breast cancer stage distribution, screened

MBT

Wong et al. [17]

 Stage I

0.521

 Stage II

0.382

 Stage III

0.057

 Stage IV

0.041

Breast cancer stage distribution, Non-screened

MBT

Tesfaw et al. [18]

 Stage I

0.1

 Stage II

0.189

 Stage III

0.569

 Stage IV

0.143

FNAC(USD)

22

Invariant

Personal communication

Cost of mammography(USD)

Invariant

Personal communication

Government Institutions

4.5

Private institutions

42

Doctor visit cost

6

Treatment cost(USD)

Gamma

 Stage I

160

Hoang Lan, et al. [19]

 Stage II

458.48

 Stage III

850.45

 Stage IV

668.7

Expected life, 40–44

36.10367697

Gamma

World Health Organization [19]

Expected life, 45–49

31.72113989

Gamma

World Health Organization [19]